Hello, welcome to visit Shanghai Forum
Zhou Hanmin
Vice Chairman of Shanghai Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference; Former Deputy Director General of the Executive Committee of Shanghai Expo 2010
Ladies and gentlemen, we are here today to make a bold prediction with a very good theme and express our views on the future of Asia in the next decade. Before I share my opinions and predictions, I would like to tell two short stories. 30 years ago, on September 22, 1990, the 11th Asian Games was held in Beijing, which was the first time in China. The theme song was “The Spirit of Asia”. After all these years, I still remember two lines, quite poetic and meaningful. The lines are We Asia, roots with roots under the mountains; We Asia, hand in hand in the clouds. How to understand “roots with roots” and “hand in hand”? This can be appropriately explained by my personal work over 10 years ago. In October 2001, I served as the representative of China to International Exhibitions Bureau to bid for the World Expo. On December 3, 2002, the world gave China a chance, and we won the bidding. From May 1st to October 31st, 2010, China also returned the world with a successful, wonderful and unforgettable Expo. The Expo Shanghai was home to 190 sovereign countries and 56 international organizations. Almost all of the 40 countries in Asia were there, reflecting an Asia of roots with roots and hand in hand.
I am still so moved by two countries, Afghanistan and Iraq. At that time, they were in the abyss of war and their people were having an extremely difficult time. However, as sovereign countries, they participated in Expo Shanghai and made essential contributions. The name of Afghanistan Pavilion is very touching. It is called “The Heart of Asia”. When you look at the map of Asia, isn’t Afghanistan located at the heart geographically? Afghanistan Pavilion shows the achievements of 400 years of great civilization in Afghanistan. Of course, Afghanistan has far more than 400 years of civilization, but rather thousands of years. I can hardly believe that the exhibits were collected and transported to China during the war
There is one thing I have never said in public and it is: every country that has confirmed its participation in the Expo Shanghai will appoint a general representative. A few days after receiving the note from the general representative of Afghanistan, we received another letter telling us that the general representative was killed in a bombing. To quote a Chinese idiom, he had to die before he gained victory. He should be remembered in the history of the World Expo.
The Expo Shanghai opened on May 1st, 2010. However, the Government of Iraq told us that they could not make it and would like to postpone their participation to June 1st. Therefore, while other 190 sovereign countries opened their pavilions on May 1st, only one country postponed for a month. We thought it was totally reasonable and we could feel what they were feeling. Iraq Pavilion opened on June 1st, 2010. when I attended its opening ceremony, what struck me was that their theme was the next city. What does that stand for? The smoke of gunpowder will disperse, and the light is at the end of the tunnel. The Pavilion told the story of Arabian Nights, which had been handed down from generation to generation. How touching it was.
With these two stories, I would like to illustrate that our Asia is roots with roots and hand in hand.
The theme of today's forum is the Next Decade in Asia. I think there are three things we can anticipate:
First, Asia will promote the birth of a new globalization model in the world with the arduous efforts of its own regional economic integration. After eight years, 31 rounds of negotiations, the 10 ASEAN countries, along with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, 15 countries in total, “10+5”, have established a regional economic cooperation agreement, which was finally signed on November 15th this year. How to evaluate it? This year, the whole world is like playing a basketball game. On one side of the court is Covid-19 that has swept 215 countries. Up to today, there have been more than 70 million confirmed cases worldwide, among which 17 million in the United States. On the other side is us, human beings. Finally, on November 15th, 2010, the agreement signed by these 15 countries was a three-point shot, which was of great significance.
People were discussing, apart from the WTO reform, where else can China and US cooperate?
I would like to say that this agreement represents a new direction of regional economic integration. Its population accounts for 30% of the world's total population. Today, the world's economic and trade power is the tripartite confrontation, like the troika, including RCEP signed by 15 countries, the EU of 27 countries and the USMCA. From the perspective of population, RCEP accounts for 30%, EU for 6%, and USMCA for 6%; from the perspective of economic aggregate, RCEP accounts for 31%, EU for 18%, and USMCA for 28%; from the perspective of trade, RCEP accounts for 33%, EU for 31%, and USMCA for 18%. This means that RCEP has absolute importance. It's not that RCEP has already come into force, because it is conditional that the legislatures shall approve it of six of the ten ASEAN countries and three of the other five countries. What might happen when it comes into force? A siphon effect, which will attract more countries in the Pacific to join. If one-day RCEP and CPTPP will move in the same direction, won't this direction be the new globalization? Five clauses in this agreement worth mentioning: for example, 90% of the goods in 15 countries will eventually have zero tariff. The service trade market will be further opened. China and Japan, China and South Korea will start trade exchanges under RCEP. We will adopt common principles to resolve disputes in the future. We also have regional accumulation and Rules of Origin. All of these will become reality in the future, which will push the development of regional economic integration in Asia in the next decade, and then further promote the development of new globalization.
Second, the acceleration of Asian urbanization will reshape the development of Asia. Ten years ago, the theme of the Expo Shanghai was Better City, Better Life, which won the worldwide recognition as it offered a chance for us getting together to discuss the future of the world. What we are seeing today is more catastrophes like Covid-19, but in the face of catastrophes, we need to keep our spirits high. That's why on the 250th anniversary of Beethoven’s birthday, the radio station in Shanghai was commemorating this great musician with a 16-hour music marathon, which in other sense, advocating the spirit of a great hero. The second trend is that urbanization is still growing in Asia. Among the 10 megacities in the world, seven are in Asia: Tokyo, Shanghai, New Delhi, Mumbai, Calcutta, Jakarta and Dhaka. It's not that megacities have no problems, but the biggest opportunity for megacities is that their development is determined by their people. As a Chinese idiom goes, people go up while water flows down. Therefore, the job opportunities provided by and the economic prosperity formed by megacities should be fully recognized. But the pressure in the investment of infrastructure construction brought by megacities also exists. However, it can be viewed from two perspectives: on the one hand, it creates job opportunities and boosts economic development; on the other hand, it costs so much that it is difficult for the country to balance its expenditure. However, one thing for sure is the trend of urbanization. In 1800, 2% of the world's population lived in cities. In 1900, it was only 10%, in 1945, it was 29%, and in 2019 it was close to 60%. The speed is impressive. However, as the average level of urbanization in Asia is still less than 50%, we should pay close attention to its development. Therefore, urbanization in Asia must be a surging trend in the next decade.
Third, the digital economic revolution will achieve the greatest success in Asia and promote the world's technological and industrial revolution. China's GDP in 2019 is 99.1 trillion CNY, of which 35.4 trillion CNY is created from digital economy. Today, China has advantages in the basic layer of 5G, and we need more international cooperation to improve the comprehensive layer and application layer. Isn’t it the same case in other Asian countries? Today, there are 4 billion mobile phone users and 2 billion internet users in Asia. These two data tell us why e-commerce in Asia has developed so rapidly. It is not difficult to find out why Shanghai, where the Forum is located, can transform one network access into one network unified management and make every effort to promote it. It has become one of the ten outstanding cases of the United Nations in 2020, and Shanghai will become the only smart city in the world in 2020. Today, in this city, we look at Asia with surging emotions. Shanghai is a city of Asia, and Asia is a part of the world. We should not feel down with Asia in times of difficulties as Asia is full of vigor and hope.
Thank you!
