SHF2025｜Yukio Hatoyama

View of Today's World from the Perspective of Technology, Development and Governance

Yukio Hatoyama

Former Prime Minister of Japan

Hello everyone. Today, I will use the word governance in a broad sense, not only to domestic organizations including governments, but also to global order.I would like to congratulate you all for holding the Shanghai Forum today. It is a great honor to be invited to this prestigious forum.

The theme of this forum is Technology, Development, and Governance. This theme is very convincing. When we try to understand today's uncertain world, the keywords such as technology, development, and governance are our guideposts.

Looking back at history

First, let's take a retrospective look at history.

The four greatest inventions in the world are paper, gunpowder, the compass, and letterpress printing. I don't need to explain that these four great inventions have had a tremendous impact on the development and governance of nations and the world. By the way, they were all invented in China or have their origins in China. Once again, I am impressed that China is a country worthy of respect.

The Industrial Revolution that took place in the late 18th century made Britain the factory of the world”. Needless to say, Britain subsequently became a major empire with colonies all over the world.

How about something a little closer to our time?In the 1980s, the United States was struggling with trade and budget deficits. However, the Internet, which originated as military technology during the Cold War, made great strides in the United States, and the U.S. was economically revived. They won the Cold War against the Soviet Union. By the end of the 20th century, the widely held view was that the world had become a U.S.-centered unipolar structure. The combination of information technology and transportation technology has covered the world in a great wave of globalization and increased economic interdependence.

Interestingly, technology brings about development, but the degree to which it benefits varies from country to country. Countries that adapt well will develop, while those that do not will be left behind.

In the late 19th century, Japan, which opened its doors to the rest of the world, succeeded in the Industrial Revolution, transforming its samurai-centric caste society and becoming a major power. However, it was slow to respond to the information technology revolution in the second half of the 20th century, and has been stagnant for more than 30 years.

Conversely, China, which did not do well in the 19th century, adapted brilliantly to the information technology revolution and globalization since the second half of the 20th century, and has become an unstoppable economic superpower. It is not just about creating new technology, but also how to incorporate it economically and socially, and the adaptability of a nation and organization will greatly determine the outcome.

The emergence of Trump and technology

Next, let's look at one of the most notable political leaders in the world today: US President Donald Trump.

About 100 days have passed since President Trump's second term began. Until recently, the first 100 days of a president's inauguration were said to be the honeymoon period. But in the United States today, you never hear such a phrase. That is how serious the division in American society has become. I studied in the United States in the 1960s, but the current American democracy does not seem to be the democracy I know. On the trade front, Trump has been preoccupied with bashing foreign countries since his first day in office. Trump tariffs are targeting countries all over the world without any fair criteria. Allies like Japan are no exception. Thus, Trump's America is greatly shaking up the United Staes, the Western alliance, and global governance.

A number of factors are intertwined, including the relative decline of U.S. power, the Thucydides Trap brought about by the rise of China, and the widening wealth gap and division of U.S. society that globalization has accelerated. What is clear is that Trump would not have become president of the United States without the development of information technology and the rise of social media based on that technology.

As you know, Trump's success in business as a real estate magnate has made him nationally known as the host of a popular television show. But when the race to determine the Republican nominee for the 2016 presidential election began, how many people expected Trump to be the Republican presidential nominee?He was that unknown in the traditional political world. However, Trump made extensive use of social media, which was already popular at the time, in his campaign and dominated the other Republican candidates.

And in the general election, he overturned the odds and won against Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. At this time, the Trump camp made full use of fake news and slander. It was because of the characteristics of social media, such as echo chambers, that his supporters believed the rhetoric spread by the Trump camp. If there were only television and newspapers in the United States in 2016, so many Americans would not have believed Trump's rhetoric. Trump would never have become the Republican nominee for president, let alone beat Hillary.

Trump continued to use social media after he became president. It is no exaggeration to say that it was the backbone of the Trump administration's governance. However, it promoted division in American society and weakened the governance of the United States as a whole. Time and again we have seen diplomatic relations upset by Trump's own momentary tweets.

Thus, Trump's rise to and retention of power is very much a product of the technology of social media. Many people would be bitterly disappointed with that. Japan is no stranger to the phenomenon of technology influencing democracy. There have been recent cases where scandalous candidates who were expected to fail have won or done well in elections by manipulating public opinion through the spread of fakes and slanders on social media.

That being said, we cannot ignore social media. How do we suppress the negatives and bring out the positives of the technologies that have emerged, and how do we adapt our organizations and societies? We are constantly being tested in the past, present, and future.

AI

The proposition I just stated is especially true for AI. I don't have detailed knowledge of the cutting edge of AI, but I understand that the impact of AI is enormous. And like social media, AI has its pros and cons, and its development is unstoppable.

On February 28th, March 1st in our time, President Trump and President Zelensky met at the White House. It is well known that the meeting turned into an unexpected altercation and was broadcast on television. That same day, I received three AI videos from several acquaintances reporting on the Trump-Zelensky meeting. The first was Trump trying to stop a fight between Zelensky and Vance. The second was Zelensky knocking out Trump. The third was Trump and Zelensky fighting in kung fu. You may have seen it. Of course, they are fake videos by AI. However, when I sent the first video to another friend, he replied excitedly, “Here's the truth that TV will never tell us!”  I was horrified to realize that it would be very easy to completely fool him with AI.

Oh, folks, don’t worry. This speech was not generated by an AI.

Sino-US relations and technology

Technology, economic development, and national and international governance are closely related. This is true in the military sphere as well. While I wish for nuclear abolition, it is true that nuclear weapons have had a profound impact on modern warfare, peace, and the international system.

The same can be said about AI. That is why the U.S. is trying to suppress China's development of advanced semiconductors, fearing that China will catch up.

In the long run, however, I believe that the U.S. attempts will end in failure. This is because, historically, new technologies have never been kept within the borders of a single country. Did China have a monopoly on the world's four greatest inventions: paper, gunpowder, compass, and letterpress?Was the Internet used exclusively in the United States?Recall that even the atomic bomb was a U.S. monopoly for only a few years.

Americans may say, Although we can't prevent China's high-tech development, we can slow it down. However, the success of Deepseek has proven that even this is difficult. And for many countries, including those in the Global South, the arrival of Deepseek must have been good news. For they can now use AI that performs as well as the U.S.-led one at a fraction of the price.

The competition between China and the United States over semiconductors and AI is never-ending. It will continue for decades to come. Economically, competition is a welcome thing, as it leads to improved performance and lower prices. However, politically, competition alone will deepen security dilemmas and destabilize international relations. If the world were to be shaped into a China-US block in the fields of information technology and AI, it would be nothing but a nightmare. It is essential that China and the US create a mechanism to control competition.

Needs for International standards and international monitoring bodies

In October 2021, I wrote an article in a U.S. magazine proposing the creation of an international standards and oversight body for information and communications. The idea was to create a unified global standard for technical standards for high-tech telecommunications equipment and cyber security, and to establish a system that would not prevent the use of any country's products and services as long as they meet those standards. I then argued that an international organization should be created to monitor whether the agreed standards are being followed. Now I think it would be good to have a similar system for AI.

Such a mechanism should not be created by China and the United States alone. Middle powers such as Japan, South Korea and Europe need to cooperate with countries in the Global South and push both China and the United States to reach an international agreement.

Today, the United States is increasingly becoming egocentric and turning its back on its responsibility to maintain the world order. This trend may not be easily contained even after Trump. If we simply stand by as Trump's America attempts to destabilize the international order, however, we will become Trump's equals. I do not want to go down that road.

Now is the time to test our wisdom and our actions. I sincerely hope that the Shanghai Forum will serve as the starting point for this.

I would like to conclude my speech here. Thank you for your kind attention.