Hello, welcome to visit Shanghai Forum
New Energyresearch is a long-lasting process, and we need to treat it carefully,prudently, and patiently. The so-called “overtaking at the turn” isunscientific, because promotion of some new staff in a rush will definitelyresult in certain accidents which may not be fully foreseen theoretically.
Reporter: HanQinke
Reporter: What newenergies may China choose in the future ten years according to you?
Zhao Guotong: Wehave already developed water energy as well as nuclear energy, and they enjoyhuge future potential because currently China occupies only 1%, while SouthKorea occupies 13% and France occupies 77%. Also, we cannot totally denynuclear energy because nuclear leak accident in Japan, because what they use isearly second generation nuclear power technology, and the tsunami caused dieselengine breakdown, and therefore cooling water could not be provided, whichfinally led to explosion due to overheated nuclear reactor. What we use inconstructing nuclear power station in Zhejiang is third generation nuclearpower, and we have also built a supporting reservoir on mountain in Taizhouspecifically for nuclear power station. In case there is something wrong withelectric power, we can use water with the help of gravitational potentialenergy to cool nuclear reactor, which is called “non-dynamic safety system” andit is very safe. There are other new energies which I think are practicable forcurrent ten years. One is shale gas that the United States has successfullyexploited in the past few years, and China has a large stock of shale gas aswell; the other is deep-sea oil, 1500 meters below. China has built adeep-water semi-submersible drilling platform in South Sea near Hongkong on May8th, and the equipment used is developed and produced in Shanghai.
Reporter: You havementioned in your report that people have many misunderstandings of new energymobiles. What are common misunderstandings according to you?
Zhao Guotong: Thefirst one is that many people think that new energy mobile merely refers to electricvehicles, yet there are methanol fueled vehicle, ethanol fueledvehicle, etc. as well. The second misunderstanding is that people think newenergy mobile refers to pure electric vehicles using stock battery alone, yetthere are also fuel-cell vehicle, hybrid vehicle, and high voltage capacitor electricvehicles. Electric vehicles are not the only solution, and we should try tofind various solutions in new energy mobile research. Also, we should encouragescientific research, yet we need to be prudent about industrialization and needto develop research that is economically practicable because we cannot longrely on governmental subsidies. Moreover, nowadays people feel too good aboutnew energy. Many people think we can replace oil with hydrogen which we canendlessly gain from oceans. It is also a misunderstanding because we have tocost three times as many as energies to get hydrogen monoxide throughelectrolysis using electric power. Therefore, hydrogen is not “human beings’primary energy”, and cannot replace oil. Surely, when controlled thermonuclearfusion technology is mature after 50 years, we can synthesize all kinds ofliquid and gas fuels at relatively low price, including recycling carbondioxide as fuel, and at that time, hydrogen can become practicable cleanenergy. However, it is highly flammable and combustible, and we should payclose attention to safety while using hydrogen. Therefore, I never agree tocall hydrogen new energy, because for me, it is only a new fuel.
Reporter: Apartfrom technology and supporting facilities issues, people argue a lot aboutwhether electric vehicles are clean or not, do you think it is clean?
Zhao Guotong: Wecannot make sweeping generalizations about such issue. Not all electricvehicles are clean, and we need to consider it from the angle of whole lifecycle. Shanghai uses coal to generate electricity, and therefore electricvehicles consuming electricity use coal as well, which is not clean enough.However, places such like the Three Gorges Area uses clean electricitygenerated by water, and therefore, electric vehicles are clean as well.Moreover, price of electric vehicles is higher than that of common vehicle, andnational as well as local governments provide subsidy in order to encouragepurchasing, yet the subsidy itself has problems. Take Shanghai as an example,every 10 thousand GDP output costs 0.75 ton of coal, and if government provides30 thousand Yuan, it means that as many as 2.25 tons of coal are cost. We cannever gain balance if we buy cleanness with pollution. What is worse is thatbatteries used by electric vehicles usually wear out in two to three years, andto change new battery costs money and worn out battery needs to be cleaned up,which cause more wastes and pollutions.
Reporter:Recently, there happen several accidents with new energy mobile, what is youropinion on safety issue of new energy mobile?
Zhao Guotong: NewEnergy research is a long-lasting process, and we need to treat it carefully, prudently,and patiently. The so-called “overtaking at corner” is unscientific, becausepromotion of some new staff in a hush will definitely result in certainaccidents which may not be fully foreseen theoretically. Electric mobile isonly a choice, yet it is absolutely unrealistic to widely promote it in onlyten years! So-called electric vehicles people buy are most hybrid vehicleswhich can only be called “energy saving vehicles”. Few people choose pure electricbecause even though consumers have sense of environmental protection, they willnot actively pay for inconvenience.
Reporter: Then electricvehicles has little market in recent years?
Zhao Guotong: Ithink it is the case in big cities, not because of lack of charging pile orhigh price. There are three basic shortcomings of pure electric vehicles.First, energy provided by one kilo of oil is 100 times as high as that providedby one kilo of lead-acid cell (50 times as high as that provided by lithiumbattery). Secondly, time spent on filling oil is 1/100 of that spent onelectricity charging, while fast charging damages battery a lot, and causesshort battery life span. Thirdly, if combustion engine wears out, we only haveto change consumable parts, yet if battery wears out, we need to change a wholenew one, and the consumption allowance is ten times as high as that of commonvehicle. However, electric vehicles suits small cities well because theirtravel radius is shorter. Last year, I took several graduate students of FudanUniversity to visit Shifeng Corporate in Liaocheng, Shandong province, and wefound that low-speed small electric vehicles are very popular in Liaocheng. Thesmall electric vehicles are sold at 28 thousand Yuan, and the highest speed perhour is no more than 60 kilometers. Also, lead battery recycling is compensatedand dealt with professionally, which is very safe andenvironmental-friendly.
Reporter: If we don’tstrongly promote new energy mobile, what we can do in face of ever increase ofoil price and tighter supply?
Zhao Guotong: Oilcrisis will directly cause “material crisis” because chemical buildingmaterials, pesticide, fertilizer, agricultural film, chemical fibre and polymerplastics and some other necessities in modern life are all important productsin oil industry chain. History of human beings is history of materials, andpeople’s development in energy use directly pushes forward change of materials.From stone - wood - pottery - bronze - iron - plastics, energy consumed bythese materials is more and more. I think we should put emphasis on researchabout what new material we can use to replace oil in 50 - 100 years.
Reporter: Youalways encourage people to use bicycles, yet it may not be a mainstream view,then what do you think of difficulty in promoting bicycles?
Zhao Guotong: The reason why the majority of peopletend to buy four-wheel vehicles after leaping development of China’s economy isthat they are much influenced by western, especially American transportationculture. In fact, in my view, China is very different from America. Americaonly has a population of 300 million yet its land area is huge, and therefore,American people need to largely rely on cars for transportation. Moreover,American people pay much attention to living environment, and they preferindependent villa with private garden. American’s development mode is “villawith private garden and car for everyone high carbon consumption well-off mode”,while China has a large population and pursues a “apartment with public garden,8-wheel plus 2-wheel (railway and bicycle) low carbon andenvironmental-friendly fairly well-off mode”. Nowadays, Americans also begin toreflect upon their “automobile society” and think that such mode fails to bringa bring future for human beings. Recently, I have read a new book written byAmerican scholars calledTwo Billion Carsin which scholars poseresponsible consideration. As to European countries, they also encounter largepopulation with little land, and they have been promoting bicycles very early.The “No car day” on September 22th is initiated by them! It is a pity that fewcities respond to that in China.
Introductinn of Zhao Guotong
Tenth CPPCC committee, former counsellor in ShanghaiMunicipal Government, former vice-president of Shanghai Energy Research Society
�Y-S�1mx � ont-size:14.0pt'> 我这么说并不是要让当地居民都搬走，我只是提出意见，引起大家关注，希望政府能够尽快采取措施，搞循环经济，抵制污染。而这也是需要全民共同努力的。
I do not mean to getlocal residents to move out. I just provide my suggestion and hope to raisepeople’s attention to it. I hope that government can take measures as soon aspossible, develop circular economy and fight against pollution, which alsorequires mutual effort of all people.
记者：最后，请您畅想一下十年后的中国吧！
Reporter: In theend, would you like to imagine China after ten years?
赵章元：这很难说，主要还是要看政府是怎样控制的。如果按现状发展下去，未来的中国是很危险的。首先人体的健康就难以保证。目前，中国已成为世界上新发癌症患者最多的国家，发病率直线上升，糖尿病、血管病病人也大幅增加。
Zhao Zhangyuan: Itis hard to say, and it mainly depends on how government controls theenvironment issue. If we still develop as current situation, the future Chinawill be in great danger. First of all, human beings’ health cannot beguaranteed. Currently, China has become a country with largest number of newcancer sufferers, and the number of diabetes patients and angionosis patientsincreases rapidly as well.
并且，这样的发病趋势有年轻化、婴儿化的特征，出生缺陷也成为了婴儿死亡、儿童和成人残疾的重要原因。最危险的一点是现在中国已经出现生育能力急剧下降的趋势，男性出现了“精子危机”，女性出现“胎停育”。在十年后的中国，这个问题会比现在更突出。本世纪中叶有可能出现生态崩溃。如果不加以防治的话，到时，生育困难将直接威胁到中国的发展。所谓的人类灭绝也并不是耸人听闻的，各国科学家其实也都意识到，如果环境继续遭受污染，不久的将来，第六次物种大灭绝可能真的会到来。
Moreover, patientsof such diseases tend to be younger and younger, and even babies suffer suchdiseases. Birth defect is a very important reason of baby death and disabilitiesof children and adults. The most dangerous thing happening in China is therapid decline of fertility. Male suffers “sperm crisis” and female encountersfetus death. After 10 years, such problem will be more prominent than today,and at that time, fertility difficulty will directly threaten China’sdevelopment. The so-called human beings extinction is not an exaggeration.Scientists all over the world have sensed that if environment is furtherpolluted, the sixth species extinction may really come in the future.
赵章元简介：
中国环境科学研究院研究员。1969年毕业于北京大学，后调入中国环境科学研究院先后任湖泊环境研究室和近海环境研究室主任，兼中国地球物理学会环境专业委员会副主任、秘书长，国家环保总局环境工程评估中心专家组成员。
Introduction of Zhao Zhangyuan:
Researcher in Chinese Academy of EnvironmentalSciences, graduated from Peking University in the year 1969, director ofLaboratory of Lake Environment and Laboratory of Offshore Environment, deputydirector and secretary general of Environment Professional Committee of ChineseGeophysical Society, expert of Environmental Project Evaluation Center of ChineseAdministration of Environmental Protection
