Hello, welcome to visit Shanghai Forum
Peacefulrise represents a strategy goal which does not mean we need to totally give upmilitary force and war. The whole world should believe that China has thedetermination and goal of peaceful rise, and should also work together withChina in order to make China’s rise really peaceful.
Reporter:Zhang Ruoyao
Does thewhole world doubt China’s rise?
Reporter: Luo Jiahui, during the interview early this year by NPR, saidthat “all people and governments around the world doubt China’s intention”while talking about China’s development and rise. Do you agree with him?
Wang Wen: I think it is an exaggeration of international doubt. A coupleof days ago, I interviewed John Mearsheimer, who coined the “China Threat Theory”andhas been propagating the “Chinas threat” for many years, yet he also admitsthat only 10% in American academic field agree with his view while 75%disagree. From this angle, we can see that the majority of people believe thatChina can achieve peaceful rise. Moreover, international opinions toward China’srise also change in the past few years. Facts since 2008 show that more andmore people in the world hold recognition and welcome attitude toward China’s riseand believe that China’s rise is controllable and will not bring threat.American president Mr. Obama has said for several times that “we welcome China’srise”. Author of “end of history” Francis Fukuyama has also revised hisopinion, thinking that there is nothing American democracy can teach China.
If we have to find some reason for Luo Jiahui’s view, which may be withthe rapid speed of China’s rise, China’s behavior is more and more exposed toglobal media and opinion. Now main media around the world almost cover China inreports everyday, which never happened in the past. In this case, the wholeworld is examining China with microscope, and western media tend to reportChina in negative discourse, which more easily causes fake phenomenon that thewhole world doubts China’s rise, yet today, more and more western media peoplehave been learning to explain and understand China’s rise, and therefore,percentage of positive reports keeps increasing.
Reporter: Professor Mearsheimer said during the interview with you thatthere was nothing new in proofs against his point of view in the past 9 years,does it mean that we have long made no breakthrough in proving legality andrationality of China’s peaceful rise?
Wang Wen: To some extent, it is the truth. Firstly, we need to admitresearch bottleneck, because it is not only problem of China, but the wholeworld has no quality change in international relationship in the past 9 years.Secondly, there is almost no big power achieving peaceful rise in the past 500years, which makes peaceful rise hard to be proved just like Goldbachconjecture. Thirdly, China’s rise is the rise of a super power. UK’s and France’srises in the 19th century are rises of millions of people; America’sand Japan’s rises in the 20th century are rises of tens of millionsof people, yet China’s and India’s rises in the 21st century arerises of billions of people. China’s rise equals rise of 50-80 powers like UKand France in the 19th century. Rise of such a super power willbring stronger uncertainties, which makes it harder to prove China’s peacefulrise than to prove that of UK and France, and there are also more changes inreality.
Reporter: Is it possible that we can gain some substantial proofs in thefuture to enhance international recognition toward China’s peaceful rise?
Wang Wen: I think that progress of theory first depends on practice. The19th century sees rise of small-size power; the 20th century witnesses rise of middle-size power, and the 21st century isrise of super-size power. Whether we can achieve substantial progress in theorydepends on development of practice. There is still a long way to go for China’srise, and there are many uncertainties about the future. Maybe after 30-50years, China will successfully rise without a war, and then, practice willnaturally prove innovation of theory, and make it easier to prove. Whether wecan solve peaceful rise topic mainly depends on practical development.
Peaceful rise does not mean wegive up military force
Reporter: Last year, there was a review in Global Times saying that “Chinashould hold the balance between peaceful rise and courage in facing friction”,believing that peaceful rise concept is not in contradiction with the possibilityof use having regional military friction and conflict.
Wang Wen: Peaceful rise represents astrategy goal which does not mean we need to totally give up military force andwar. The whole world should believe that China has the determination and goalof peaceful rise, and should also work together with China in order to makeChina’s rise really peaceful, which is a good thing for the whole world, foreast Asia, and of course for China. However, if some countries make troubles,China should give active response.
Reporter: There are some Chinese netizens doubting whether China can risepeacefully, and professor Mearsheimer has also mentioned that he believes thatthere are number of Chinese people who agree with him. According to you, how doChinese people recognize peaceful rise?
Wang Wen: We need meticulous research fromacademic perspective. If let me say according to my feeling, I believe that themajority of Chinese look forward to China’s peaceful rise, yet on the other hand, when China is bullied, themajority of people hope that China can give timely and forceful response. Theseemingly contradictory views reflect Chinese people’s complex and contradictoryattitude toward peaceful rise, and I think such attitude is very normal whichtypically reflects puzzle and uncertainty of the future. Nowadays, bothnational and global environment is very complex, and no one knows what Chinacan do in the future. In this case, Chinese express a wish that we hope not tofight with others, and there are few people holding chauvinism in China.Generally speaking, Chinese people are tender, yet being tender doesn’t meanbeing weak.
We should try to lower rate of war
Reporter: Your suggestion of solving territorial disputes is “put asidedisputes and try to achieve common development”, yet there are also opinionsthinking that there are many problems now and it is hard to maintain stabilityin the past, and therefore, current diplomatic policy should turn from seekingfor stability to trying to solve problems, what is your opinion of such pointof view?
Wang Wen: I think it a very reasonable point. Of course we cannot adoptpast “ostrich policy”, and it is not contradictory with “put aside disputes andtry to achieve common development”. In the past, what we did more in the SouthChina Sea and other issues is “put aside disputes” without seeking for “commondevelopment”. I restate “put aside disputes and try to achieve commondevelopment”, and it is very important at lease in our debate with thePhilippines, because China has never stirred dispute on Huangyan Island, etc.,yet countries such like the Philippines and Vietnam don’t want to put asidedisputes, and hopes to stir sovereignty dispute. There is no space for bargainingwhen it comes to sovereignty, and therefore China should fight back. If in theend the problem cannot be solved through talk, we have to resort to war.
I hope they can put aside dispute and try to achieve common development.The latter is more important for China. There are over 1000 oil wells exploitedin the South China Sea in the past 30 years, yet China just exploited the firstoil well there one month ago. In the past, we could not achieve such goalbecause of national power, strategic sense, etc., and now we should take theinitiative to develop. In some disputed areas, we can actively cooperate withdispute countries, put aside disputes, and what is important is how tocooperate and gain profits according to contributions.
Reporter: You have mentioned role of American responsibility in avoidingEast Asian war, as to this part, does it mean that we can only depend onAmerican self-control, or we can also make some effort in order to form certainrestraints on America?
Wang Wen:Both. Crucial sources and solutions of many East Asian problems are actuallyclosely connected with America. If East Asia wants to go out of currentdifficulty and lower possibility of war, America is surely an important actiontaker. The result of America’s offshore balance in East Asia it thatrelationship between every two Asian countries is worse than their own withAmerica. America needs to take on duty of maintaining peace, and not to stirdoubt and fight among East Asian countries. Once war explodes in East Asia,American cannot gain too many profits from it, and burst of war must havesomething to do with America. Therefore, how to lower possibility of war isclosely related to America’s duty. On one hand, we should depend on dialoguesbetween China and America, Japan and America, South Korea and America, thePhilippines and America to influence America’s interest groups, think tanks andmedia in order to let them realize their responsibility of east Asia, and onthe other hand, we need to have certain ability for game as well, for example,we can pose pressure on America on selling warship to Taiwan, militarymaneuver, the Philippines issue, etc., and express strong opposition.
Reporter: Why do you specially mention the role of strengtheningdialogue between media and the pubic in lowering possibility of war?
Wang Wen: First of all, with China’s rise, nationalismalso rises. More and more people hope that China can show strong standing ondisputes, yet on the other hand, every country has such nationalism.Philippines’ media and people also stir nationalism, their foreign ministereven said that they would spare no effort to fight with China. However,problems cannot be solved on force alone. How can we deal with such feelings?We need to strengthen dialogue between mainstream media and opinion leaders. Oncethey achieve mutual understanding, they can effectively reduce somemisunderstandings and hostilities because of wrong judgment. Surely, it is notthe only solution.
East Asian mode is Problem-oriented mode
Reporter: You have mentioned that there is more and more discord betweennationalism and East Asian peace. Some scholars think that today we more needsupport of a global sense than any time, and at the same time they cast eyes onChinese tradition. Do you think it possible for us to develop an idea orprinciple that can guide regional order construction in order to lowerpossibility of war?
Wang Wen: Surely it is one of choices for scholars. Nowadays there arebasically three groups of scholars according to their evaluation of China’srelationship with other countries and general strategy for China in the future:the first is ancient China belief, more like tributary belief. This groupdevelops very fast in the past two years, and scholars of this group studywhether China can recover tributary system of Ming Dynasty which is to achievepeace through other countries’ following China-centered East Asian order. The directionof research just starts, yet even though they may get some results, it is verydifficult to practice them in reality because tributary system puts China atthe top of East Asian pyramid, yet it is impossible to go back in reality. Thesecond group is western centralism, and their main point is that Europe andAmerica are centers of the world, and as long as China melts into thewestern-centered international system, it is all right. I do not agree withsuch opinion as well, because China’s rise cannot live under western shadowforever and we have to make changes. Moreover, current international system isunfair and is hard to be improved. I myself relatively agree to the third pointof view. Current East Asian condition has never be seen in the past 500 years,first because it is complex, secondly because there are many countries andlarge population, and thirdly there are many history sequences in east Asian.In face of such unprecedented condition, we can only seek for our way throughpractice. Reconstruction mode of East Asia is must different from that ofEurope and America. An important characteristic of western mode isgoal-oriented, while East Asian mode is more like carefully looking every step.Such mode is harder than western mode, and it is problem-oriented in that therewill naturally be a way after problems are solved.
Reporter: Back to the topic of this year’s Shanghai Forum “Strategy forthe future ten years”, can you predicate East Asian situation after ten yearsfrom the angel of possibility of war?
Wang Wen: It is very hard to say. I am an agnostic about the future. Infact, no one can predicate, especially in the Asian-Pacific region, the mostcomplex area in the world. There are many big powers, complex religions,different cultures, imbalance of economy, conflict of ideologies, disputes oftrade and territory, etc. In the Asian-Pacific region, and therefore it is veryhard to predicate things after ten years. The topic of this Shanghai Forum isvery good indeed, because this year is term change year in the world. There areover 50 countries, including some big powers in Asian-Pacific region such asRussia, America, South Korea and China all undergoing term change this year. InChina in particular, transfer of power means that China’s strategy for futureten years may be clearer and more certain. Therefore, this year’s ShanghaiForum uses “strategy for future ten years” as topic, which actually shows aChinese ontology. Also, this year is key to the whole Asian-Pacific regionbecause power transfer accomplished this year will make policies of othercountries for future ten years clear as well. Therefore, I think the topic ofthis year’s Shanghai Forum has foreseeing ability and grasps the pulse of thetimes. As to East Asia after ten years, I think it very hard to predicate, andI had better maintain my prudent attitude.
Introduction of WangWen:
Experienced editor of Global Times
