Hello, welcome to visit Shanghai Forum
Reporter: You have made the point that the World Limits of Growth exists, but you are also very optimistic about China’s future at the same time, predicting that China would be the new super power in the world. So what lead to this conclusion and why you are so optimistic?
Jorgen Randers: It comes from the fact that China is capable of solving its main problems——poverty, shortage of food and pollution. These problems have been solved in other countries. They are solvable. Therefore I think Chinese also have the ability to solve them.
Reporter: How about some complex environmental problems, such as the severe air pollution?
Jorgen Randers: That’s not complex, that’s simply caused by the dirt coming out of cars and factories. So you can just stop them from polluting the air.
Reporter: But as we can see, cars are a necessity, as well as factories. They meet our basic needs and it seems extremely hard to avoid the emissions.
Jorgen Randers: Well, for instance, if the authority of China wants to solve the problem of air pollution, it can invest in the development of clean energy technologies and educate the public about the importance of emission reduction. China is a country with good national capability, which facilitates its efforts on environmental governance.
Reporter: It seems to be a long process. Will Chinese people be patient enough to wait for so long?
Jorgen Randers: I think they will understand. This is why I’m optimistic—these can be done and these should be done. And I think Chinese people in the end will be patient enough to wait.
In the west, we have solved the same problem successfully. The air pollution in London in 1955 when I was ten years old was much severer than the air pollution in Beijing now. It took us 30 years to solve the problem. I believe China can do this in 10 years.
Reporter: Some citizens are not very satisfied with the government’s work in the field of environmental protection.
Jorgen Randers: I understand it and I think this is a question of education. Firstly, the authority actually should try to explain to young Chinese that it is important not to depend on the market mechanism but on a strong government to solve a problem according to a plan.
In addition, the authority should make the citizens aware that the environmental situation would be much worse if Chinese are not ready to solve it within 3 or 5 years. As we can see, the situation of environment in China is deteriorating. It will deteriorate much faster if we don’t work hard to stop it.
I would argue that China should stop producing all the goods for the rest of the world and only produce for itself. Then you can close down most of the factories.
Reporter: How about the economy? Closing down factories may slow down the development of the economy.
Jorgen Randers: It means you will be no longer able to import things from the rest of the world. But the labor forces don’t need to be put into production of goods for export. The production process can be focus on domestic consumption. Therefore Chinese people’s demand can be satisfied and they will be healthier and happier due to the good living environment.
Jorgen Randers:
Jorgen Randers is a Norwegian academic, professor of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School, and practitioner in the field of future studies. He is an influential futurist, environmental scientist, and co-author of the global bestseller—— The Limits to Growth (1972), 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years (2012).
