Hello, welcome to visit Shanghai Forum
Development of new mechanisms for economicdevelopment can be particularly important in the light of the recent reports byIMF and World Bank experts who evaluated barriers to the development of theglobal economy and the consequences of the global financial crisis.
Currently, their effects cause disparitiesbetween the level of demand and supply in developed and emerging economies,thereby disrupting the existing flows of goods. In addition, the situation isexacerbated by the austerities in the monetary and credit policy of somecountries and the volatile dynamics exhibited by the commodity prices andforeign exchange rates.
Summarizing these factors, experts concludethat the average global economic growth rates in 2014 were lower thananticipated and only marginally surpassed the modest growth results of 2013.Current trends are expected to continue in the long term – growth rates of theglobal economy will reach approximately 3% in 2015 and will show slightincrease to 3.3% in the period leading up to 2017.
During the next two years, the economy ofhighincome countries will grow by 2.2% (an incremental increase against thelevel of 2014 – 1.8%). A gradual increase of growth rates is forecasted at 4.8%in the current year and 5.4% up to 2017 in developing countries, givenweakening of internal contradictions and marginal growth of the consumer demandin high income countries.
In other words, we have reasons foroptimism. However, it is still very premature to announce a full-fledgedrecovery of the global economy from the effects of the recession.
Some experts foresee that in the next 10years we could face very low rates of global economic growth. At the heart ofsuch forecasts is rational evaluation of risks for the global economy in thecoming years. One of the most significant threats is the persisting high levelof public debt of major developed countries. An equally serious challenge is theunbalanced and vulnerable nature of the international currency system and weakcontrol over the trans-border movement of capital and derivative operations.Disruptions to the economy could be caused by non-economic factors, such asarmed conflicts, deterioration of the political systems of entire nations, andinformational warfare.
As for Russia, the country has entered thefull spectrum of negative consequences of both international and internalnature. If we’re talking about the internal factors, there are somedisparities, some absence of results in the evaluation of economy. If we’retalking about the international factors, that is the current situation withimplementation of so-called sanctions to hurt Russian development.
These consequences of attempts destabilizeand undermine the foundations of its economic development, including by meansof instigation of armed conflicts and imposition of unilateral sanctions thatcontradict the tenets of international law.
Given these risks and the need for newdrivers of economic growth, the agenda becomes increasingly more focused on theimportance of strengthening of the real sector of the economy. As a rule, themain sources of growth are associated with re-industrialization and activedevelopment of modern infrastructure. Currently, the opinion that the key rolein the achievement of large-scale infrastructure objectives must belong to thegovernment is gaining momentum.
In this light, we are witnessing thetendency towards restructuring of the global development model. More and morescientists and experts arrive at the understanding that globalization andsaturation of the world economy with enormous financial injections can nolonger ensure high growth rates. We are beginning to see the incapacity of theliberal monetarist theory and the need for a new paradigm of development.
In view of the above, the unbalanced natureof the global economic recovery testifies to the complexity and urgency ofchanges in its architecture. The geopolitical gravity center is graduallyshifting from the West and the Atlantic towards the East ¨C to the countries ofthe Central Asian and Asian-Pacific regions, which are now transforming into akey element of a large-scale inclusive cooperation. The advantageousgeographical location on the Eurasian continent and the abundance of naturalresources draw attention of global powers to this region.
In this context, priority objectivesinclude the need to stimulate and foster regional economic cooperation, expandexchange in knowledge and expertise between the West and the East, and promotepeace, development and prosperity for the people of our countries. Jointimplementation of major infrastructural, industrial and energy projects shouldbecome the basis for such cooperation.
During the official visit of President ofthe People¡¯s Republic of China Xi Jinping to the Russian Federation in thebeginning of May of this year, ground-breaking agreements were reached in thekey areas of cooperation ¨C energy, trade, investments, currency operations, infrastructure,and transport. To quote President of Russia Vladimir Putin, the relationshipsbetween our countries have reached an “unprecedented level.”
One of the priorities of the Sino-Russiancooperation is the initiation of a full-scale dialog mechanism for unificationof the processes of Eurasian economic integration and development of the SilkRoad Economic Belt.
On May 8, President of the RussianFederation Vladimir Putin and President of the People¡¯s Republic of China XiJinping signed a joint statement on cooperation on the integration of thedevelopment of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Silk Road EconomicBelt.
I would like to emphasize that the mainobjective within the framework of the EAEU is comprehensive modernization,cooperation and enhancement of the competitiveness of national economies andimprovement of the living standards of the people of member states: Armenia,Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kirgizia, and Russia.
The initiative for development of the SilkRoad Economic Belt, in essence, represents a new form of cooperationenhancement and joint efforts in creating new economic growth areas.
In accordance with the joint statementsigned by the leaders of Russia and China, for the purpose of uniting these“formats” of interaction, the parties to the document intend to join theirefforts in augmenting regional cooperation in the following priority areas:
- Expansion of trade and investmentcollaboration, development of new drivers of economic growth;
- Simplification of bilateral investmentprocesses and promotion of manufacturing cooperation;
- Increase of integration in the areas oflogistics, transport infrastructure and intermodal transportation,implementation of infrastructure development projects;
- Development of free trade mechanisms and considerationof a long-term goal of establishment of a free trade zone between the EAEU andChina;
- Creation of favorable environment forsmall and medium enterprises;
- Facilitation of efforts aimed atincreasing the use of national currencies in account settlements;
- Cooperation within the framework ofvarious financial institutions.
-Strengthen multilateral cooperationrelationships around the world.
And here I’d like to make some remarks. Theidea of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is very great, modest andinnovative. But it has some concerns, because its share capital is going to becalculated and created on the dollar basis. That is high time to introduce somepossible mechanisms and alternative currency to be used.
Through these means we strive to lay thefoundation for the creation of a common Eurasian economic space and ensurebroad-scale cultural and historical exchange, as well create new centers forgeneration of national wealth for both nations.
In this light, we see as unique theopportunity to integrate the Russian megaproject Trans-Eurasian Belt RAZVITIE(TEBR) and the initiative of our Chinese partners - One Belt – One Road.
When we speak of the TEBR concept and theSilk Road Economic Belt, some observers gain the impression that we are focusedon the integration of these projects (particularly, transport infrastructureroutes) in the geographical dimension. Evidently, the matter of suchintegration is of political interest. However, our objective must be perceivedin a broader sense as it includes not only integration of transport routes andsynchronization of the projects, but, most importantly, an overall integralunification of formats and mechanisms for Eurasian cooperation and joint accumulationof resources for achievement of global-reaching goals.
In the context of the announced topic ofour roundtable, I would like to draw the attention of the audience to the keyideas of the Belt RAZVITIE project. As I said, that’s not just transportroutes. That’s a comprehensive plan to further development of very importantareas on Eurasia Continent.
A network system of multimodalinfrastructures – railway, automotive, energy, waterway and information – wouldbecome the basis of the belt. Development of this system would be accompaniedwith the construction of new R&D and industrial centers and communitieswith a multitude of new jobs, which in their turn will become a source ofadvanced industrialization. In the process of devising the architecture of theTEBR, our focus should be on long-term infrastructure projects. Here I alsowould like to add some moves forward in terms of the cooperation. In developinga new high-speed railway system in Russia, a part of the global high-speedroute between Beijing, Moscow and further Europe was decided and that’sextremely important to my mind.
In this context, a key role belongs to theWest ¨C East international transport-transit destination as a transport bridgebetween West-European and Asian-Pacific Economic Centers.
The Russian Federation and JSC RussianRailways are carrying out activities aimed at developing a system ofInternational Transport Corridors, which will serve as a basis for promotingglobal megaprojects.
We have put a significant effort intopromoting the idea of reconstruction of the Trans-Korean railway main line.That will also be the basic line for the development and transportinfrastructure in this region.
We will also focus on the development ofthe New Eurasian Transport Corridor to Bratislava and Vienna. That¡¯s theinfrastructure through Kazakhstan, Russia, and further to Ukraine and Slovakia,and to Austria capital. Its name is New Eurasian Transport Corridor.
At the same time, JSC Railway Cooperationis promoting the cooperation with Iran to build up the North-to-SouthInternational Transportation Corridor which connects Baltic Sea with India.
Our cooperation with China and othercountries of the APR has reached an unprecedented scale.
So it’s extremely important to create somemechanism and institutions for coordination of the development of the New SilkBelt and TEBR in order to reach effectiveness of these projects.
I mentioned only several elements for theparadigm of cooperative projects that are the basis for the mutually successfulsocial, economic and political development of Eurasia continent. From thispoint of view, I completely agree that it is important not only to cooperate,but to actually understand each other.
